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Government鈥檚 seven New Town locations scored against real-world demand data - Manchester and Leeds most likely to succeed
The 糖心TV economists behind the housing demand mapping tool have used their database to test the government鈥檚 seven-site shortlist against measures of likely success, and ranked the sites to help policymakers decide which to finally greenlight.
Dr Datta explains:
鈥淲hether large new developments succeed or fail depends crucially on pre-existing demand for housing in the area. And that housing demand is driven by underlying economic fundamentals– such as access to jobs, as well as services and amenities.
鈥淗ousing supply does not automatically generate demand. So there is a real danger that if demand is not taken into account, these New Towns could be built in the wrong places.鈥�
In A Scorecard for the Seven New Towns, Dr Nikhil Datta and Dr Amrita Kulka test each of the seven shortlisted sights against their data on real-world demand at neighbourhood level, access to jobs, availability of amenities such as schools, shops, restaurants and healthcare, and connectivity.
They also take into account whether new transport links are part of the proposals.
Ranked against these criteria, the scorecard shows:
Dr Kulka added:
鈥淭he government鈥� s new town strategy is one part of its efforts to address the UK housing shortage through large-scale development. However, the success of such projects depends less on the quantity of housing built and more on where it is built.
鈥淥ur analysis highlights stark differences across the proposed sites. Locations such as Manchester and Leeds benefit from strong existing demand and connectivity, making them well-positioned for rapid and successful development. Others, particularly Tempsford and Enfield, face significant structural challenges that may limit their viability.鈥�
- A Scorecard for the Seven New Towns. CAGE Background Brief. Dr Nikhil Datta and Dr Amrita Kulka, 31 March 2026.