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Thursday, January 29, 2015
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DR@W Forum: Ben Newell (University of New South Wales)糖心TV Library (Wolfson Research Exchange Area- Room 1)"Are risk and delay psychologically equivalent? Evidence from direct comparisons." We know a lot about people’s time preferences. We also know a lot about people’s risk preferences. We know much less about how risk and delay interact. Consider an individual who is indifferent between receiving $90 in 8 months or receiving $50 now; and similarly indifferent between a 60% chance of receiving $90 or $50 for certain. What would happen if they were asked to choose between receiving $90 in 8 months or a 60% chance of $90 now? Strict psychological equivalence of risk and delay predicts indifference here too. I will present some recent work in which we have attempted to elicit and model people’s preferences for these kinds of choices in the hope of shedding light on what has been described as the “complex and not easily understood” (Weber & Chapman, 2005, p.104) interaction of risk and delay. |