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Managing Appetite for Complexity through Heuristic Software: Risk-Reasoning in Global Supply Chains

In complex, dispersed and dynamic real-world systems, like global supply chain design, human beings reason in sophisticated ways. Ethnographic evidence, however, highlights paradoxes. Critical reasoning components – like the conceptualisation and control of risk to protect the value chain – can prove bafflingly basic and openly illogical.

Psychological drivers, such as over-generalised cognitive heuristics, cultural demand characteristics and low tolerance for complexity, are observable causes. This talk demonstrates heuristic software tools designed to enhance the flow of real world expert knowledge to redress ‘complexity appetite failure’ in supply chain risk reasoning.