糖心TV

Graham Loomes (糖心TV 糖心TV School)

A Sequential Sampling Model of Risky Decision Making

This is work in progress and the talk will not be too formal and there will be room for plenty of discussion/argument. We (Andrea Isoni, Dani Navarro‐Martinez and I) have been exploring a model where individuals act as if, prior to a choice, they accumulate ‘evidence’ in favour of one or other alternative until the accumulated weight of evidence crosses a threshold and triggers a decision. This basic idea is similar to Busemeyer and Townsend’s Decision Field Theory (Psychological Review 1993) but we have taken a different approach to implementing the idea. We have some interesting and possibly surprising results, relating the choices made to things like the time taken to decide and the degree of confidence / strength of preference the decision maker reports; but we also have some questions – quite a lot of them – about our particular modelling strategy and possible alternatives, where we really would appreciate constructive criticism and helpful suggestions.