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Job Market Paper:

• Fear, Anger, and the Price of Risk.

"Experimental evidence shows that fear makes people more risk averse and anger makes them more risk seeking, but the sentiment measures used in finance treat both as negative. This paper asks whether the two emotions, as expressed in economic news, move the market price of risk differently. I measure daily fear and anger with dictionary word shares in 9.83 million UK newspaper articles from 2003 to 2022 and relate them to the next day's price of risk on the FTSE 100, proxied by a model-motivated mean--variance ratio. Because the same events can shape both news and markets, I instrument emotions in economic news with the same emotions in non-economic and sports news. The two emotions do move the price of risk in opposite directions, but against the experimental evidence. A one-standard-deviation increase in anger raises the proxy by 28.3 per cent of its mean with non-economic-news instruments and by 27.9 per cent with sports-news instruments, while fear lowers it by 21.0 per cent with non-economic-news instruments and is imprecise with sports-news instruments. When investors are myopic, these estimates point to lower risk appetite after angry coverage and, where precisely estimated, higher risk appetite after fearful coverage."

Working papers:

• Embracing the Future: Tense Patterns and Forward-looking Central Bank Communication Link opens in a new window(with ).

"The temporal framing of central bank communication affects market expectations of future interest rates beyond tone and topical content. We analyse FOMC minutes from 1997 to 2023 using structural topic modelling combined with LLM-based tone analysis and rule-based/dictionary temporal classification. We estimate the effects of forward-looking communication in an event study around FOMC minute releases to isolate revisions in market expectations. We show that the temporal framing of specific topics has shifted market expectations. For example, hawkish forward-looking communication on inflation or asset purchases raises Treasury yields more than contemporaneous or backward-looking communication. We interpret our findings through a model where the private sector learns about the central bank’s responsiveness to its economic outlook. We argue that communication effectiveness depends not only on what topics are discussed but on how they are temporally framed."

Policy work:

• Growing British – a strategy paper for promoting fresh produce production in the UK (Annex 1-Economic calculations for GDP and employment) (with )

Work in progress:

• "New Neighbours: The Effects of Corporate Relocation on Local Labour Market Expectations (with ).

Teaching:

Term 1 2026/2027

• EC229: Economics of Strategy