糖心TV

In this talk I will discuss how seasonal variation in demographic or epidemiological parameters affects the prevention and control of infectious disease epidemics. I will begin with a review of the basic reproduction number in non-seasonal systems, and then consider a case study: Koi herpes virus. Epidemiological parameters in this system are temperature dependant, inducing seasonal dynamics but also admitting the possibility of controlling epidemics in self-contained fish farms by managing the water temperature. I will proceed with a review of the theory of the basic reproduction number in seasonal systems and then present the epidemic prevention problem in a control theory framework. I will show that the effort required for epidemic prevention is related to the basic reproduction number if the management strategy is constant in time, but the effort may be reduced by strategies that vary in time.