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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260428T074335Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20251104T141500
DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20251104T153000
SUMMARY:Applied & Development Economics Seminar - Erzo Luttmer (Dartmouth
 )
TZID:Europe/London
UID:20251104-8ac672c69874bbdc0198754571e201cd@warwick.ac.uk
CREATED:20251020T151238Z
DESCRIPTION:Title: Living Large or Long? Preference Estimates from Comple
 ted-Life Stories (joint with Joshua Schwartzstein\, Tomáš Jagelka\, Amit
 abh Chandra) The paper will not be ready for sharing prior to the semina
 r\, an abstract is as follows: ———Extended Abstract ——— The value of a y
 ear of life plays a crucial role in informing policy decisions related t
 o healthcare\, the environment\, innovation\, and safety regulations. Gi
 ven the significance of a life year’s value for policymaking\, estimates
  should accurately reflect people’s preferences. Currently\, estimates a
 re derived from individuals’ observed choices involving small risks of d
 eath and monetary compensation\, such as their willingness to take riski
 er jobs for higher pay. However\, these estimates have significant limit
 ations: individuals may not correctly perceive small risks\, may deviate
  from rationality for choices involving small probabilities\, and those 
 making such choices\, like soldiers or firefighters\, represent a non-re
 presentative sample. Furthermore\, unobserved job characteristics relate
 d to risk can bias these estimates. Our paper introduces an alternative 
 method for estimating the value of a life year\, attempting to overcome 
 these limitations. We present a broadly representative sample of U.S. re
 spondents with choices between pairs of “completed-life stories\,” askin
 g which life they would prefer for themselves. By randomizing lifetime e
 arnings and ages of death in each story\, we estimate how the probabilit
 y of choosing a particular story increases with higher lifetime earnings
  versus a later age of death. We find that a 7% increase in lifetime ear
 nings increases the choice probability as much as a 1% increase in longe
 vity\, implying a Life Year Value (LYV) elasticity of 7. Consequently\, 
 a typical individual with median earnings of $80\,000 annually values an
  additional life year at age 80 as equivalent to receiving an additional
  $5\,700 per year for all working years\, totaling approximately $225\,0
 00 over their lifetime. We validate our estimates by demonstrating high 
 test-retest reliability across survey waves and establishing their robus
 tness through a series of specification checks and additional randomizat
 ions. Furthermore\, we estimate markedly higher LYV elasticities for ind
 ividuals whose subjective attitudes indicate that they place an above-av
 erage value on an additional life year. A key methodological advantage o
 f our approach is that respondents engage in a natural task—assessing wh
 ether a life was desirable—which avoids triggering cultural or social no
 rms about paying for life extension. Moreover\, our method does not enta
 il decisions under uncertainty\, thereby avoiding many known behavioral 
 biases. An important substantive advantage of our approach is that it al
 lows us to estimate how the Life Year Value varies with respondent chara
 cteristics\, age of death\, and lifetime earnings in a broadly represent
 ative population. We find that the LYV increases with lifetime earnings 
 and decreases with later life years. Even when holding constant lifetime
  earnings and age of death\, there is notable heterogeneity in the LYV a
 cross individuals. This suggests that tailoring policies to individual p
 references can result in welfare improvements. ——————
LOCATION:S2.79
CATEGORIES:Applied & Development Economics Seminar
LAST-MODIFIED:20251020T151238Z
ORGANIZER;CN=Gill Gudger:
END:VEVENT
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