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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260620T112531Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20160407T143000
DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20160407T154500
SUMMARY:DR@W Forum: Anca Hanea (University of Melbourne)
TZID:Europe/London
UID:20160407-8a1785d77b065d9b017b5dc5cb4f2029@warwick.ac.uk
CREATED:20160229T100531Z
DESCRIPTION:An IDEA of how to get the best out of experts This talk prese
 nts a fairly novel structured expert judgement (SEJ) protocol for quanti
 fying parameter uncertainty using multiple experts. Generally\, multiple
  expert opinions need to be aggregated. The two main flavours of aggrega
 tion\, behavioural and mathematical\, define two main classes of SEJ pro
 tocols. A third one\, the so-called “mixed” approach combines aspects of
  both behavioural and mathematical methods. The IDEA protocol proposed h
 ere mixes specific elements from the three SEJ classes of approaches men
 tioned above\, such that their disadvantages are minimised and their res
 pective advantages cumulate. The acronym IDEA arises from the combinatio
 n of the key features of the protocol that distinguish it from other str
 uctured elicitation procedures: it encourages experts to Investigate\, D
 iscuss\, and Estimate\, following which judgements are combined using ma
 thematical Aggregation. The experts give their individual opinions in su
 bsequent rounds of elicitations\, in a remote manner. In the first round
 \, the experts are required to answer the questions without engaging in 
 any (virtual) discussion with the other experts. They are then given the
  opportunity to discuss differences of opinion and reconcile the meaning
  of questions and context. The debate is remote (using an online platfor
 m) rather than face-to-face. This has the advantage of promoting the wis
 dom of crowds\, whilst avoiding the tensions associated with group discu
 ssion between dominating personalities. The second estimate is again ind
 ividual and strictly anonymous. At the end of the second round the outpu
 t is a set of estimates that should further be mathematically aggregated
 . Several aggregation rules\, many of them performance based\, can be us
 ed and compared. Experts’ performance may be measured in terms of accura
 cy\, calibration and informativness.
LOCATION:ĚÇĐÄTV Library (Wolfson Research Exchange Area- Room 1)
CATEGORIES:Draw Forum
LAST-MODIFIED:20210819T093725Z
ORGANIZER;CN=David Morris:
END:VEVENT
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