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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260626T084051Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20120503T160000
DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20120503T173000
SUMMARY:DR@W Forum - Peter Wakker (merged with the Department Seminar at 
 the Department of Economics)
TZID:Europe/London
UID:20120503-8a1785d77b065d9b017b5dc5cb4b1eb2@warwick.ac.uk
CREATED:20120131T155318Z
DESCRIPTION:Peter Wakker (Erasmus University Rotterdam) Using Prospect Th
 eory to Analyze New Risks (Ambiguity) in a Large Representative Sample a
 nd to Explain Real Investment Decisions (joint with Mohammed Abdellaoui\
 , Aurélien Baillon\, & Laetitia Placido\; and with Roy Kouwenberg & Stev
 en Dimmock) Since Keynes (1921) & Knight (1921) we know that uncertainti
 es in economics usually do not come with objective statistical probabili
 ties. De Finetti (1931) and Savage (1954) proposed to still use probabil
 ities in such cases\, which then have to be subjective. However\, Ellsbe
 rg (1961) showed that in most cases no subjective probabilities can be a
 ssigned in any traditional sense (ambiguity). Hence we need fundamentall
 y new models. Only at the end of the 1980s\, Gilboa & Schmeidler succeed
 ed in introducing such models. The first ones were all theoretical and n
 ormatively motivated\, assuming expected utility for known probabilities
  and focusing on ambiguity aversion. Tversky & Kahneman (1992) incorpora
 ted the Gilboa-Schmeidler ideas into prospect theory\, leading to the fi
 rst empirically realistic model of ambiguity. We introduce the source mo
 del\, a special tractable version of prospect theory. It yields exact pr
 edictions and ambiguity premiums\, and easy graphs to fully capture ambi
 guity attitudes. We can now let the data speak on ambiguity\, showing a 
 rich set of phenomena beyond the mere ambiguity aversion assumed in the 
 normatively oriented theoretical models such as multiple priors\, alfa-m
 axmin\, and smooth utility. We first implement the source method in a la
 boratory experiment\, and then in an incentivized survey over N=1\,935 h
 ouseholds\,where we investigate the impact of ambiguity on household por
 tfolio choices. In particular\, we can now analyze the influence of ambi
 guity on the nonparticipation paradox of households that invest less in 
 stocks than any normative theory can explain. Poster-May-3-2012
LOCATION:S2.79
CATEGORIES:Draw Forum
LAST-MODIFIED:20210819T093725Z
ORGANIZER;CN=Ganna Pogrebna:
END:VEVENT
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