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DTSTART:19960101T000000 END:STANDARD BEGIN:STANDARD TZNAME:GMT TZOFFSETFROM:+0100 TZOFFSETTO:+0000 DTSTART:19961027T020000 RRULE:FREQ=YEARLY;BYMONTH=10;BYDAY=-1SU END:STANDARD END:VTIMEZONE BEGIN:VEVENT DTSTAMP:20260430T131951Z DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20250313T140000 DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20250313T153000 SUMMARY:Macro/International Seminar - Amy Handlan (Brown) TZID:Europe/London UID:20250313-8a17841b90977dd8019097e9447a0731@warwick.ac.uk CREATED:20250310T111831Z DESCRIPTION:Title: Monetary Communication Rules by Laura Gáti and Amy Han dlan Abstract: Does the Federal Reserve follow a communication rule? We propose a simple framework to estimate communication rules\, which we co nceptualize as a systematic mapping between the Fed's expectations of ma croeconomic variables and the words they use to talk about the economy. We provide strong evidence supporting the existence of a communication r ule: 30-40 percent of the variation in language of FOMC policy statement s is accounted for by variation in Fed forecasts and other policy instru ments\, like the target rate and asset purchases. We document a signific ant break in the communication rule in late 2008\, over-and-above shifts in the regressors' distributions. There is evidence that communication rules are stronger post-2008 and this impacts how financial markets reac t. Overall\, investors respond to both systematic and non-systematic com munication and do so more strongly after 2008\, indicating they pay grea ter attention with more systematic communication. LOCATION:S2.79 CATEGORIES:Macro/International Seminar LAST-MODIFIED:20250310T111831Z ORGANIZER;CN=Gill Gudger: END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR