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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260428T221309Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20180122T150000
DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20180122T160000
SUMMARY:Sophie Murray (Trinity College Dublin): Solar Eruptive Forecastin
 g
TZID:Europe/London
UID:20180122-8a17841b5edc49cd015ee6a9ded60c41@warwick.ac.uk
CREATED:20171004T091405Z
DESCRIPTION:One essential component of operational space weather forecast
 ing is the prediction of solar eruptive events: flares\, coronal mass ej
 ections (CMEs)\, and their associated particle events. Whilst our unders
 tanding of the fundamental processes involved with solar eruptions has a
 dvanced in recent years with the advent of high-resolution spacecraft im
 aging\, accurate forecasting of these events remains elusive. A multitud
 e of flare forecasting methods are now available for operational use\, h
 owever it is still unclear which of these methods performs best\, and no
 ne are substantially better than climatological forecasts. Current opera
 tional space weather centres cannot rely on automated methods\, and gene
 rally use statistical forecasts with a little human intervention. Space 
 weather researchers are increasingly looking towards methods used by the
  terrestrial weather community to improve prediction techniques. Ensembl
 e forecasting has been used in numerical weather prediction for many yea
 rs as a way to combine different predictions in order to obtain a more a
 ccurate result. It has proved useful in areas such as magnetospheric mod
 elling and CME arrival analysis\, however has not yet been implemented i
 n operational flare forecasting. Here the results of combining several a
 utomated flare forecasting methods available at the NASA/CCMC Flare Scor
 eboard will be presented. A ‘best’ ensemble forecast is constructed base
 d on what measure of performance is most important for the prediction. T
 his method allows space weather forecasters the freedom to tailor the ou
 tput to the needs of different end-users\, and the resulting forecasts r
 ival the accuracy of the human forecasts. Most operational efforts curre
 ntly focus on flare forecasts\, considering the short warning time for i
 mpacts on Earth. This talk will also briefly highlight some recent progr
 ess on operational CME forecasting efforts\, by combining results from t
 he EU FP7 HELCATS and Horizon 2020 FLARECAST projects.
LOCATION:
CATEGORIES:CFSA Seminar
LAST-MODIFIED:20180112T103421Z
ORGANIZER;CN=Anne-Marie Broomhall:
END:VEVENT
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