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BEGIN:VEVENT
DTSTAMP:20260624T175859Z
DTSTART;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20110324T130000
DTEND;VALUE=DATE-TIME:20110324T140000
SUMMARY:Lunchtime Workshop: Ken Wallis
TZID:Europe/London
UID:20110324-094d43ed2eb4e006012ebee997bc5ccc@warwick.ac.uk
CREATED:20110316T134503Z
DESCRIPTION:Forecasting inflation in the crisis: the Bank’s Survey of Ext
 ernal Forecasters\, 2006-2010 (joint work with Gianna Boero and Jeremy S
 mith) The Bank’s quarterly Survey of External Forecasters (SEF) began in
  1996 by asking respondents for their point forecasts (“central projecti
 ons”) and density forecasts of RPIX inflation in the fourth quarter (Q4)
  of the current year and Q4 of the following year. Sincethen there have 
 been several changes in the survey – variables have been added or change
 d (RPIX/CPI)\, forecast target dates have been added and changed\, as ha
 ve the histogram bins supplied for the probability forecasts\, and respo
 ndents have come and gone. In 2005 the Bank agreed to my request to make
  the (anonymised) individual responses to the survey available to resear
 chers\, and the dataset has been updated annually. To date we have publi
 shed four articles on different research questions illuminated by these 
 data: “Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction …”\, EJ 118 (
 2008)\, 1107-1127 “Evaluating a three-dimensional panel of point forecas
 ts …”\, IJF 24 (2008)\, 354-367 “Here is the news: forecast revisions in
  the [Bank’s SEF]”\, NIER No.203 (2008)\, 68-77 “Scoring rules and surve
 y density forecasts”\, IJF 27 (2011)\, 379-393. The first three articles
  were based on the surveys up to November 2005\, then an importantbreak 
 occurred with the May 2006 survey questionnaire\, which replaced the pre
 vious target dates of Q4 this year\, Q4 next year and two-years-ahead wi
 th one-\, two- and three-yearsahead. The fourth article used the quarter
 ly series of two-year-ahead forecasts from February 1998 to November 200
 6: with inflation outcomes to 2008Q4 this caught the beginning of the re
 cent more volatile experience\, in contrast to the “NICE” period previou
 sly analysed. This seminar reviews some of our earlier findings in the l
 ight of this experience\, and presents some new insights into forecaster
 s’ behaviour.
LOCATION:S2.79
CATEGORIES:Workshop
LAST-MODIFIED:20110316T134503Z
ORGANIZER;CN=Fiona Brown:
END:VEVENT
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