糖心TV

Andreas Murr and his team correctly predicted on the 4th of December a big majority for the Conservatives.

His approach based on "citizen forecasts" ranks 2nd for the Conservatives and 5th for Labour in terms of accuracy among 19 pre-election seat forecasts. You can read more about his forecast on the and about the other 18 forecasts on .

We are rescheduling the IPE Debate on 'Climate Change: Power, Resistance & Change', due to the UCU Strike, so NB: it will no longer be on the 3rd March, but will take place early next term - dates/time to be confirmed very soon.

Professor Juanita Elias, University of 糖心TV, will be giving the Annual IPE Lecture on: 'Women on board: The gender politics of economic competitiveness'.

The lecture will take place on 22nd January, from 15:00-16:30 in L5 (Sciences Concourse). There will be a short drinks reception afterwards. All welcome.

We are delighted to invite Professor Richard Samuels, Ford International Professor of Political Science and Director of the Center for International Studies at MIT, as a special guest speaker for our East Asia Study Group (EASG) seminar.

Professor Samuels will discuss the evolution of Japan鈥檚 intelligence community and its future, based on his 6th book from Cornell University Press, Special Duty: A history of the Japanese Intelligence Community (published in October 2019). He is one of the very most distinguished international experts on Japanese politics. Professors Chris Hughes, Richard Aldrich, and Chris Moran will be hosting this talk. Although this event is out of term time, we are very fortunate to have Professor Samuels visit, and really hope you can make the effort to attend. A private book signing will take place immediately after the talk. If you plan to attend this seminar, please email easg@warwick.ac.uk.

Further details below:

Title: Special Duty: A History of the Japanese Intelligence Community

Time: 17 December 2019, 15:00-17:00

Venue: Council Chamber, Senate House

Abstract:

Intelligence communities are everywhere and always in motion. Japan's has been no exception, often shifting in response to dramatic analytical and organisational failures, changes in the regional and global balance, and sudden technological developments. In the first half of the 20th century, Japan had a full spectrum intelligence apparatus. This came apart with defeat in WWII and subordination to the United States. After the Cold War, shifts in the security environment and major intelligence failures stimulated rethinking by Tokyo. Following a period of half-hearted and incomplete reforms, the Japanese government began to enhance its collection and analysis capabilities, and to tackle in earnest the dysfunctional stovepipes and leak-prone practices hampering its intelligence system. Where do matters stand today?

Tom Long and Sebastian Bitar published a new entry on "International Security in Latin America," for the Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Latin American Politics. The chapter surveys the state of the field relating to Latin American security, including topics such as state security, transnational organized crime, high homicide rates, borders, and more. In the region, "isolated state responses are insufficient to respond to transnational dynamics; although some coordination has been achieved, intergovernmental responses have produced limited gains and substantial unintended consequences." The piece emerged from collaboration during Dr Bitar's visit as an IAS in 2018; Dr Bitar is an associate professor at Universidad de los Andes, Bogota, Colombia.

The piece is available here: