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There will be two 1hr presentations, titles are as follows:

i) Exchange Rates and the ‘Fed Information Effect - Emanuele Savini

ii) An Emotional Mr. Market: Media Emotions and the Time-Varying Price of Risk - Andrea Guerrieri D'Amati

Title: Disadvantage and Distorted Beliefs (joint with P Dalton and S Ghosal).

Abstract: We develop a dynamic theory of how structural disadvantage shapes outcomes through the interaction of cognitive constraints and psychological determinants of efforts. We relate locus of control, self-efficacy, and grit to perceived returns to effort, and study aspirations in an extension. Individuals differ in exogenous circumstances, such as class, caste, race, gender, or inherited wealth, which affect the payoff or likelihood of success from effort. Beliefs about returns to effort evolve only through effort itself. Disadvantage raises the belief threshold required to justify effort, making disadvantaged individuals more likely to stop trying before learning their true returns. External locus of control, low self-efficacy, and weak grit can therefore emerge endogenously. We distinguish standard traps, which arise even for farsighted agents, from behavioral traps, which arise under partial myopia. Cash transfers, subsidies, and access policies lower effort thresholds; psychological, role-model, and grit interventions sustain beliefs.

Title: The Persistence of Female Political Power in Africa (by Siwan Anderson, Sophia Du Plessis, Sahar Parsa, and James A. Robinson)

Abstract: Research on female political representation has tended to overlook the traditional role of women as leaders across many societies. Our study aims to address this gap by investigating the enduring influence of historical female political leadership on contemporary formal political representation in Africa. We test for this persistence by compiling two original datasets: one detailing female political leadership in precolonial societies and another on current female representation in local elections. Our findings indicate that ethnic groups historically allowing women in leadership roles in politics do tend to have a higher proportion of elected female representatives in today's formal local political institutions. We also observe that institutional, rather than economic, factors significantly shape the traditional political influence of women. Moreover, in accordance with historical accounts, we uncover evidence of a reversal of female political power due to institutional changes enforced by colonial powers.

Title: Model Averaging in Semiparametric Estimation of Quantile Treatment Effects.

Please find the paper here:

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Do people predict others’ decisions by repeated sampling of simulated outcomes?

Title: Scope of Trust: Origins and Consequences

Title: Synthetic Control and Synthetic Difference-in-Differences: An Asymptotic Optimality Perspective

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Title: Health Insurance for Seasonal Savings: Evidence from Rural Côte d'Ivoire

Authors: Günther Fink, B. Kelsey Jack, Renate Strobl, Dao Daouda

Abstract: Households in low-income agricultural economies face large seasonal fluctuations in income and limited access to financial tools for smoothing consumption. In such settings, health insurance can serve not only as risk protection, but also as a state-contingent savings technology, transferring resources from high-income harvest periods to low-income lean periods. We study the rollout of Côte d'Ivoire's national health insurance scheme in a context with high morbidity, substantial out-of-pocket expenditures, and pronounced income seasonality---conditions under which the potential welfare gains from insurance are particularly large. Using a randomized subsidy design among 2,468 cocoa-farming households, we show that insurance demand is highly responsive to both price and cash-on-hand liquidity. Despite strong demand and actuarially favorable pricing, we find limited effects on health spending or consumption. We show that this disconnect arises from frictions in accessing benefits, including weak verification and reimbursement environments that limit providers' willingness to honor coverage without immediate proof. Our results highlight the importance of implementation, trust, and contract enforceability in determining the welfare impacts of social insurance.

Title: Follow the Leader? Coordination Motives in Sequential Information Acquisition (joint with Mark Whitmeyer)

Title: (with Amanda de Albuquerque, Fred Finan, Anubhav Jha, and Laura Karpuska)

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Title: Bank Branches and the Allocation of Capital across Cities (with Gustavo Gonzalez, Marcos Sora).

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Daniel Jaar is visiting the department for one week.

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Title: Is the Electricity Sector a Weak Link in Development? (joint with Martin Shu and Jonathan Colmer)

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Details TBC

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