糖心TV

Ivan is presenting the following papers:

Larsen and Thorsrud (2019), The value of news for economic developments, Journal of Econometrics.

Larsen , Thorsrud and Zhulanova (2021), News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities, Journal of Monetary Economics.

Title is  Rationality in Enlivened Decision Trees

Abstract: Limits to the possibilities an agent can imagine, let alone analyse, typically force consideration of a bounded decision tree whose shortcomings could suddenly become all too obvious at any subsequent time.That bounded tree is therefore subject to an enlivening process leading to revisions whose details, by definition, cannot be modelled even as unforeseen events. Nevertheless, one can model uncertainty about the ultimate retrospective value of each possible decision that must be made within the current tree.

Then it is prescriptively befitting, and perhaps even descriptively fitting, to extend the standard normative criterion of subjective expected utility maximization to this framework.

This workshop is via Microsoft Teams, link .

Francesco鈥檚 presentation is titled: Political Parties as Drivers of U.S. Polarisation: 1927-2018 (with Nathan Canen and Chad Kendall)

Abstract: The current polarization of elites in the U.S., particularly in Congress, is frequently ascribed to the emergence of cohorts of ideologically extreme legislators replacing moderate ones. Politicians, however, do not operate as isolated agents, driven solely by their preferences. They act within organized parties, whose leaders exert control over the rank-and-file, directing support for and against policies. This paper shows that the omission of party discipline as a driver of political polarization is consequential for our understanding of this phenomenon. We present a multi-dimensional voting model and identification strategy de- signed to decouple the ideological preferences of lawmakers from the control exerted by their party leadership. Applying this structural framework to the U.S. Congress between 1927- 2018, we find that the influence of leaders over their rank-and-file has been a growing driver of polarization in voting, particularly since the 1970s. In 2018, party discipline accounts for around 65% of the polarization in roll call voting. Our findings qualify the interpretation of – and in two important cases subvert – a number of empirical claims in the literature that measures polarization with models that lack a formal role for parties.

This seminar is via

to sign up for individual meetings, Andreas Stegmann is organiser, he will share the Zoom links for the individual meetings with those colleagues that signed up for individual meetings closer to the date.