Dr Emma Davis

Who am I?

I'm a Royal Society University Research Fellow in Statistics. I use mechanistic models and statistical methods to analyse the dynamics of endemic and emerging diseases, with a particular focus on the surveillance and elimination of vector-borne Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs).

My Research

Interests

Infectious disease modelling, validation and forecasting
Outbreak detection and response
Surveillance methods for vector-borne diseases
Neglected tropical diseases
Measuring elimination (measuring "zero")

Methods include: stochastic processes, mechanistic modelling, individual-based models and simulation, networks, Bayesian inference, survival models.

Current projects

VECTOR-X: Modelling vector-based surveillance methods for lymphatic filariasis and other neglected tropical diseases. Royal Society University Research Fellowship (2024 鈥� 2032).

Xeno-monitoring is a surveillance method which uses vector surveys to draw conclusions about host infection levels for vector- borne diseases. This is particularly important when infections are low, where challenges arise from increasingly large sample size requirements and reduced community engagement with surveillance. During this project I aim to develop new data-driven models for the mosquito-transmitted neglected tropical disease (NTD), lymphatic filariasis (LF), which has long been targeted for elimination, to assess the cost-effectiveness of xeno-monitoring for classifying elimination and resurgence.
Translating a cross-border migration model of lymphatic filariasis transmission to country-specific scenarios: 1) the Thailand-Myanmar border and 2) Nomadic migration in Northern Togo. EPSRC Impact Acceleration Account (2024 - 2025). Research Assistant: Emma Exall.

PhD students

Rob Sunnucks. 鈥淎daptive Management for Strategies against NTDs.鈥� MathSys CDT, University of 糖心TV (2024 鈥� ).
Luke Murray-Kearney. 鈥淎ge-specific representation of social contact networks using egocentric survey data.鈥� MathSys CDT, University of 糖心TV (2023 鈥� ).
Li Pi. 鈥淭he impacts of heterogeneity in contact behaviours on the dynamics of UK COVID-19 pandemic.鈥� Big Data Institute, University of Oxford (2020 鈥� 2024).

Recent projects

鈥淟inking modelling and policy for lymphatic filariasis elimination surveillance in Bangladesh.鈥漃olicy Support Fund, Research England (2023 鈥� 2024). Research Assistant: Jimmy McKendrick.
鈥淐ollaborating with national programmes to detect resurgence of the disease lymphatic filariasis in post-elimination settings through mosquito sampling: sensitivity and feasibility.鈥� EPSRC Impact Acceleration Account (2023). Research Assistant: Melissa Iacovidou.

Contact Details

Room MSB 5.24 (5th floor)

Mathematical Sciences Building

University of 糖心TV, Coventry

CV4 7AL

Email: Emma.L.Davis[at]warwick.ac.uk

My Network

I am a member of the Zeeman Institute for Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology ResearchLink opens in a new window (SBIDER), lead the Infectious Diseases and Modelling themes in the 糖心TV Centre for Global HealthLink opens in a new window, and sit on the executive committee for CAMaCSLink opens in a new window (Centre for Applications of Mathematical and Computing Sciences). Further afield, I'm a member of the (Joint UNIversities Pandemic and Epidemiological Research) Network and have multiple active collaborations with in-country partners and public health programmes.

Engagement activities

I run an outreach YouTube channel, , and currently lecture online courses in infectious disease epidemiology (University of Oxford).

Publications

2024

Vasconcelos, ...,Davis et al. 鈥淎ccelerating progress towards the 2030 neglected tropical diseases targets: how can quantitative modeling support programmatic decisions?鈥� CID (2024).
Davis et al. 鈥淎n analytically tractable, age-structured model of the impact of vector control on mosquito-transmitted infections.鈥� PLoS Comp Bio (2024).
Oliver, ..., Davis et al. 鈥淩educing the Antigen Prevalence Target Threshold for Stopping and Restarting Mass Drug Administration for Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination: A Model-Based Cost-effectiveness Simulation in Tanzania, India and Haiti.鈥� CID (2024).
Iacovidou, Spencer and Davis. 鈥淣on-invasive surveillance for vector-borne diseases: using an age-structured feeding cycle model to relate mosquito and human prevalence. [in preparation]. (2024).

2023

Davis et al. 鈥淎 modelling analysis of a new multi-stage pathway for classifying achievement of public health milestones for leprosy.鈥� Phil Trans R Soc B (2023).
Davis and Hollingsworth. 鈥淓stimating LFT and qPCR test sensitivity over time since infection from a human challenge study.鈥� Pre-print: medRxiv (2023).

2022

Borlase, Le Rutte, ... andDavis. 鈥淓valuating and mitigating the potential indirect impact of COVID-19: a modelling study of programme interruptions for seven neglected tropical diseases.鈥� The Lancet Global Health (2022).
Marshall GC, ..., Davis et al. 鈥淧ublic perceptions and interactions with UK COVID-19 Test, Trace and Isolate policies, and implications for pandemic infectious disease modelling鈥� [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]. F1000Research (2022).

2021

Davis and Lucas et al. 鈥淐ontact tracing is an imperfect tool for controlling COVID-19 transmission and relies on population adherence.鈥� Nature Communications (2021).
Lucas and Davis et al. 鈥淓ngagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing.鈥� Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (2021).
Davis, Prada, Reimer and Hollingsworth. 鈥淢odelling the Impact of Vector Control on Lymphatic Filariasis Programs: Current Approaches and Limitations.鈥� Clinical Infectious Diseases (2021).
Fearon, Buchan, Das, Davis et al. 鈥淪ARS-CoV-2 antigen testing: weighing the false positives against the costs of failing to control transmission鈥� The Lancet Respiratory Medicine (2021).
Crellen, Pi, Davis et al. 鈥淒ynamics of SARS-CoV-2 with waning immunity in the UK population.鈥� Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B (2021).
Prada, Stolk, Davis et al. 鈥淒elays in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes due to COVID-19, and possible mitigation strategies.鈥� Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene (2021).
Toor, ..., Davis et al. 鈥淧redicted impact of COVID-19 on Neglected Tropical Disease programmes and the opportunity for innovation.鈥� Clinical Infectious Diseases (2021).
Fearon, Davis et al. 鈥淎 response to 鈥楥ovid-19: government must urgently rethink lateral flow test roll-out鈥�: lateral flow testing in contact tracing.鈥� British Medical Journal (2021).

2020

Lucas, Pollington, Davis and Hollingsworth. 鈥淩esponsible modelling: Unit testing for infectious disease epidemiology.鈥� Epidemics (2020).
Group, Isaac Newton Institute Infectious Dynamics of Pandemics. 鈥淩ecommendations for augmenting contact tracing in the UK: Learning from other diseases.鈥� (2020). URL: http://www.newton.ac.uk/files/preprints/ni20001.pdf
Toor, ..., Davis et al. 鈥淲hen, Who, and How to Sample: Designing Practical Surveillance for 7 Neglected Tropical Diseases as We Approach Elimination.鈥� The Journal of Infectious Diseases (2020): S499-S502.
Group, NTD Modelling Consortium. 鈥淭he potential impact of programmes interruptions due to COVID-19 on 7 neglected tropical diseases: a modelling-based analysis鈥� Gates open research, 4 (2020).
Prada and Davis et al. 鈥淓limination or Resurgence: Modelling Lymphatic Filariasis After Reaching the 1% Microfilaremia Prevalence Threshold.鈥� The Journal of Infectious Diseases (2020).

pre-2020

Davis et al. 鈥淓valuating the evidence for lymphatic filariasis elimination.鈥� Trends in Parasitology (2019).
Group, NTD Modelling Consortium Lymphatic Filariasis. 鈥淭he roadmap towards elimination of lymphatic filariasis by 2030: insights from quantitative and mathematical modelling.鈥� Gates open research, 3 [2 reviewed; 2 accepted] (2019).
Group, NTD Modelling Consortium. 鈥淎chieving NTD Control, Elimination and Eradication Targets Post-2020 Modelling Perspectives and Priorities.鈥� Gates open research, 3 (2019).
Lepper, Prada, Davis, Gunawardena and Hollingsworth. 鈥淐omplex interactions in soil-transmitted helminth co-infections from a cross-sectional study in Sri Lanka.鈥� Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene 112.8 (2018): 397-404.
Davis et al. 鈥淪easonally timed treatment programs for Ascaris lumbricoides to increase impact 鈥� an investigation using mathematical models.鈥� PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 12.1 (2018): e0006195.