Events in MathSys and Complexity Science
This is a calendar page detailing events within the MathSys CDT. It also acts as a booking diary for the Seminar Room D1.07. To book D1.07 please email Sheetal.Sharma@warwick.ac.uk
Please note that your event booking is for D1.07 only. The adjacent common room is a private area for the MathSys Centre that cannot used as part of your booking.
MathSys CDT events have priority for D1.07 room bookings.
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Complexity Forum: Ben Adams (Bath)
Epidemic control and prevention in seasonal systems
In this talk I will discuss how seasonal variation in demographic or epidemiological parameters affects the prevention and control of infectious disease epidemics. I will begin with a review of the basic reproduction number in non-seasonal systems, and then consider a case study: Koi herpes virus. Epidemiological parameters in this system are temperature dependant, inducing seasonal dynamics but also admitting the possibility of controlling epidemics in self-contained fish farms by managing the water temperature. I will proceed with a review of the theory of the basic reproduction number in seasonal systems and then present the epidemic prevention problem in a control theory framework. I will show that the effort required for epidemic prevention is related to the basic reproduction number if the management strategy is constant in time, but the effort may be reduced by strategies that vary in time.