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Nevada and Kalshi have agreed to put an escalating contempt fight on hold after jointly asking the court to cancel a scheduled hearing and instead oversee the rollout of stronger geofencing technology. The agreement shifts the immediate focus from sanctions to technical compliance while the broader legal battle over prediction market contracts continues.
The , submitted by the State of Nevada through the Nevada Gaming Control Board and Kalshi, asks the court to vacate a July 29, 2026 hearing that had been scheduled to consider the state’s application for an order to show cause regarding contempt. Nevada filed that application after investigators said they could still place trades on sports, election and entertainment event contracts despite an amended preliminary injunction requiring those markets to be blocked within the state.
The stipulation explains that “the Parties agree that entry of this Stipulation supports vacating the Hearing.” It further provides, “The Hearing set for July 29, 2026 is hereby vacated.” Unless either side later seeks court approval to change the arrangement, the agreement will remain effective “for as long as the Amended PI Order is in place.”
The dispute stems from a issued by Nevada regulators, who argue Kalshi’s event contracts amount to unlicensed gambling under state law. A temporary restraining order followed in March 2026 before the court later entered an amended preliminary injunction. Earlier this year, a federal judge also declined to halt Nevada’s enforcement effort, writing that "Litigating in state court is not a harm, let alone an irreparable harm."
The new filing acknowledges that, “notwithstanding Kalshi’s implementation of IP-based and residency-based trading blocks, the State’s investigators have successfully placed trades in sports-, election-, and entertainment-related event contracts during the pendency of the Court’s Amended PI Order.”
Kalshi also makes clear it is not accepting liability. The stipulation states, “For the avoidance of doubt, Kalshi does not concede that any such trades amount to cause for an order of contempt, and Kalshi reserves all rights and defenses in this respect.”
Instead of immediately arguing contempt, the parties will concentrate on GeoComply’s geofencing rollout. Kalshi must complete deployment or file “a sworn affidavit of a Kalshi and/or GeoComply representative explaining why implementation of the geofencing solution remains incomplete.” If the court later concludes Kalshi “failed to show that it acted with sufficient diligence in implementing the GeoComply solution,” the company “may be subject to penalties in an amount to be determined by the Court.”
Kalshi will also provide Nevada with the same implementation updates shared with Michigan regulators and permit discussions with GeoComply alongside company counsel. The agreement additionally states that “The Stipulation is entirely separate from and will not be impacted by proceedings or findings in any other State, including but not limited to the State of Michigan.” The joint stipulation was signed on July 23 and now awaits court approval.
Featured image: Kalshi / Canva
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Netflix’s latest documentary has landed before it has even premiered, but not for the reasons the streaming giant might have hoped.
Prediction market platform Kalshi has sent Netflix a cease-and-desist letter accusing it of fabricating part of the trailer for , claiming the promotional video falsely depicts trading on its platform in violation of a Nevada court order.
The July 24 letter, seen by ReadWrite, addressed to Netflix’s Director & Senior Counsel for Intellectual Property Lindsey Faivus, accuses the company of using “fabricated documents and false and misleading statements portraying trades being made on Kalshi in violation of a court order.” Kalshi demanded the trailer be removed within an hour and that Netflix issue a public retraction.
What should have been a fairly ordinary documentary moment, i.e., a World Cup watch party in Las Vegas, one participant proudly declares, “I like betting on Kalshi,” before holding up what appears to be a receipt showing a $5,000 trade on Spain to win the tournament.
Another participant boasts: “The guys in this house have made millions of dollars on prediction markets.”
The timing is notable. Kalshi processed $27 billion in trading volume and attracted around three million users during the World Cup, making the tournament a breakout moment for the regulated prediction market platform.
Kalshi suggests alleged inconsistencies put Netflix prediction market trailer under scrutiny
According to Kalshi, however, the trailer creates the impression that the trade took place in Nevada on July 19, 2026, despite a court order preventing the company from offering sports event contracts there since May. The company argues that implication is more than just inaccurate, it could undermine its ongoing legal battle with Nevada regulators.
Kalshi then proceeds to pick apart the receipt almost line by line.
It says the image is dated May 16, 2025, more than a year before the documentary says it was filmed. The phone screen also displays the word “Crop”, which Kalshi says suggests the participant is showing a saved image rather than using the app itself.
The company also claims the numbers simply do not add up. According to the letter, the Spain market had only around $580 in total trading volume during May 2025, making the apparent $5,000 trade impossible. It also points out that its platform has never used terms including “Bet Slip”, “Bet ID” or “wager”.
A documentary about prediction markets sparks a backlash from the industry
Brandon Beckhardt, the company’s chief of staff, accused Netflix of missing the bigger story altogether.
“Netflix had a chance to make a genuinely interesting documentary about prediction markets,” he wrote on X. “Instead, they made a sensationalized film built on fiction.”
He alleged the trade slip shown in the trailer “looks nothing like our UI” and claimed it was “either photoshopped or AI-generated.” Beckhardt also questioned the choice of contributors, writing that “the people in the trailer aren’t even Kalshi traders.”
Kalshi spokesperson Jacki McGavick struck a similar tone, saying Netflix had “a chance to make a genuinely interesting documentary about prediction markets” but instead produced “a sensationalized film that had a clear agenda.”
She also challenged the trade itself, writing: “Beyond the trade slip being a total fake, there’s no way this trade even happened. By the end of May 2025, total volume on Spain was $510.”
According to Kalshi’s letter, the company raised its concerns directly with a Netflix employee responsible for editing the trailer before release.
Kalshi claims the employee acknowledged they had not realized the receipt was dated a year earlier or noticed the “Crop” label at the top of the image. The employee allegedly agreed the receipt would not appear in the finished documentary but declined to remove it from the trailer despite being told it was misleading. The letter also claims the employee said they were “not worried about that” after Kalshi warned the footage could create legal complications.
The company also notes that the gathering took place at a residence owned by a casino during a World Cup party hosted by Winible, which one participant describes in the documentary as “essentially OnlyFans for the sports betting creator economy.”
Kalshi argues that is significant because Winible has commercial relationships with sportsbooks and casinos, while Kalshi itself is engaged in legal battles with casino operators over the expansion of prediction markets.
Ironically, while Kalshi objects to how the documentary portrays its platform, The Prediction Games is hardly a promotional film.
The film explores both the promise and pitfalls of prediction markets
Several contributors openly discuss the downsides of prediction markets.
Trader Isaac warns that influencer culture is becoming part of the problem.
“One of the things that is most dangerous, in my opinion, is an influencer saying how they paid their rent by guessing the weather, or some person on YouTube talking about how easy it is to get rich quick,” he says. “The more people you expose to that vice, the more people who are going to have serious problems.”
Another trader, Daniel, offers an even starker account.
“It has been the cause of significant stress, like I haven’t paid my rent for a month because of this specifically.”
Prediction market analyst Dustin Gouker goes further, arguing that legal distinctions do little to change the underlying behavior.
“It may not be legally gambling, but what is happening is 100% just gambling,” he says, estimating sports contracts account for around 85% to 90% of activity on Kalshi. He also questions whether on the boards of both Kalshi and Polymarket create potential conflicts of interest.
The documentary also includes Commodity Futures Trading Commission chairman Michael Selig, who dismisses those concerns.
“There are agreements and walls that are put in place such that we’re not dealing with any members of the president’s family when it comes to policy,” he says. “So in my belief and understanding there is no sort of conflicts of interest.”
Author James Surowiecki, whose book The Wisdom of Crowds helped popularize prediction markets, argues the industry’s biggest risks are insider trading, attempts to manipulate outcomes and the possibility that markets can end up influencing the very events they are supposed to predict.
Netflix describes Instadocs: The Prediction Games as an exploration of how prediction markets have evolved from a niche financial product into a mainstream phenomenon spanning politics, sport, entertainment and the weather.
Kalshi, meanwhile, wants the trailer gone before audiences even get that far.
The company is demanding Netflix remove the promotional video, publish a correction acknowledging it falsely implied trading took place in Nevada after the court order, and preserve all documents and communications related to the documentary’s production.
Netflix has not publicly responded to the allegations.
Featured image: Netflix via Tudum
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A bipartisan pair of House lawmakers has introduced legislation that would block federally regulated event contracts tied to sports competitions and casino-style games. The proposal, , would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prevent those contracts from being listed, cleared, or traded through registered entities if it becomes law.
The measure was introduced on July 22 by Rep. Steven Horsford, Democrat of Nevada, and Rep. Mark Amodei, Republican of Nevada. It has been referred to the House Committee on Agriculture and carries the title "Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act."
Sports prediction markets face mounting pressure in Congress with bipartisan bill
The bill creates a new provision in the Commodity Exchange Act that would prohibit agreements, contracts, or transactions connected to sporting events, athletic competitions, or casino-style games from being offered through federally regulated exchanges.
Lawmakers spell out what falls within that definition. Casino-style games include slot machines, video poker, blackjack, roulette, craps, bingo, lotteries, traditional casino table games, and simulations of those activities. Sporting events are defined broadly to include live or virtual contests involving physical activity or skill, covering amateur, collegiate, and professional competition where participants' performances determine an outcome or statistical result.
The legislation also says nothing in the proposal should override state laws regulating or prohibiting sports betting or casino-style gambling. Any restriction would apply only to contracts entered into after the measure takes effect.
The House proposal follows similar efforts in the Senate. Earlier this year, with the same title that would also prohibit Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated exchanges from listing sports prediction contracts. Announcing that bill, Schiff said, "Sports prediction contracts are sports bets — just with a different name."
Congressional attention has widened even further this month. to strengthen pending digital asset legislation, arguing that prediction markets could undermine tribal gaming protections and state authority if additional safeguards are not added.
In their letter, the senators wrote, "We write with urgency regarding the continued lack of proper regulation over prediction markets and the resulting circumvention of state and Tribal gaming regulatory frameworks." They warned that broader federal authority without explicit limits could weaken protections established under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act and existing tribal-state gaming compacts.
Supporters of the various proposals argue that sports-related prediction markets function as gambling and should remain under state and tribal oversight rather than federal commodities regulation. Industry representatives, including prediction market operator Kalshi, have countered that regulated markets provide consumers with a legal alternative and that prohibiting them could drive activity to offshore platforms outside U.S. oversight.
Featured image: Canva
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Evolution Malta Holding Limited has agreed to pay £4.75 million ($6.38 million) after a UK Gambling Commission investigation found its that could be accessed by consumers in Great Britain. The agreement concludes a licence review that began in December 2024 and closes a regulatory matter that lasted for more than a year while the company worked with the regulator.
The after discovering five genuine Evolution games on six websites operated by two businesses without Gambling Commission licences. Those websites attracted substantial traffic from British consumers between December 2023 and November 2024.
Evolution Malta Holding Limited will pay a £4.75 million settlement after a Commission investigation revealed its games appeared on six unlicensed websites accessible to consumers in Great Britain.
— Gambling Commission (@GamRegGB)
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Regulators identified what appeared to be Evolution titles in August 2024, informed the company in December, and Evolution confirmed the games were authentic. It then immediately blocked access for customers in Great Britain and expanded restrictions to other affected websites.
Evolution UK compliance investigation leads to multimillion-pound settlement
Investigators concluded Evolution’s anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing controls did not properly identify the risk that licensed customers were supplying its games to unlicensed operators targeting the British market. The commission said weaknesses in the company’s risk assessment and oversight of third parties meant the issue went undetected despite existing compliance obligations.
The regulator found breaches of , covering anti-money laundering risk assessments, policies, controls and compliance with money laundering regulations. According to the commission, Evolution’s 2024 risk assessment failed to properly evaluate third-party risks, while its anti-money laundering policies lacked enough detail on due diligence and ongoing monitoring of sub-licensees in higher-risk relationships.
The body also concluded Evolution failed to adequately identify money laundering and terrorist financing risks, maintain effective controls preventing games reaching British consumers through unlicensed operators, and sufficiently meet customer due diligence requirements. It said the failings were serious enough for licence suspension to be considered but decided against that action because Evolution responded quickly once the problems were identified.
John Pierce, Commission Director of Enforcement, said: “This case exposed serious weaknesses in Evolution’s anti-money laundering risk assessment and its oversight of risks within its supply chain.
“The company’s AML risk assessment was outdated and failed to adequately consider the risk of its games being made available through unlicensed operators. As a result, there was a significant gap between the controls on paper and their effectiveness in practice.
“The Commission’s investigation and testing uncovered failings that were serious enough for us to consider licence suspension.
“Evolution responded swiftly and comprehensively once these issues were identified, taking immediate action to strengthen its controls and address our concerns. Our subsequent testing has not identified any further instances of concern.
“However, this case provides an important lesson for the industry. Operators must ensure their risk assessments are current, regularly tested and reflective of real-world risks. They need to understand who they are supplying their games to, how and where those games are being accessed in practice, and maintain effective ongoing controls that give them confidence their products are not supporting illegal gambling.”
Evolution said the two operators involved bypassed existing restrictions and breached its supply terms. The company ended both commercial relationships immediately, introduced stronger ring-fencing controls, and said regulators found no evidence during the 18-month review of unauthorized availability of its games in Britain.
The settlement includes the £4.75 million payment in lieu of a financial penalty, an independent audit within 12 months, investigation costs and publication of agreed facts. The commission said earlier industry warnings, illegal market activity and financial benefit increased the seriousness of the case, while Evolution’s cooperation and prompt remedial action counted in its favour. At the time the review began, Evolution said the UK accounted for roughly 3% of its revenue.
Featured image: Evolution
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Today in prediction market news, we’re following the biggest developments shaping the industry, including Polymarket’s decision to challenge France’s website block, Kalshi’s launch of its Midterms Hub ahead of the 2026 elections, and fresh debate over prediction markets as former White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney and CME Group CEO Terry Duffy weigh in on the sector. We’ll also cover new questions surrounding a Polymarket-linked crypto wallet, the platform’s expansion of its restricted countries list, and breaking developments across prediction markets, election forecasting, crypto, regulation, and sports event trading throughout the day.
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