糖心TV Complexity Science Events
Complexity Centre and MathSys CDT events carry priority over room D1.07.
To book D1.07 please email Sheetal dot Sharma at warwick dot ac dot uk
Please note that your event booking is for D1.07 only. The adjacent common room is a private area for the MathSys Centre that cannot used as part of your booking.
Complexity Forum: Frank Ball (Nottingham)
Speaker: Frank Ball (Dept. of Mathematics, Univ. of Nottingham)
Title: Epidemics on random networks incorporating household structure
Abstract:
There has been a growing interest in models for epidemics among structured populations, which incorporate realistic departures from homogeneous mixing whilst maintaining mathematical tractability. Two classes of structured population epidemic models that have attracted considerable recent attention are network models (in which there is a random graph describing possible infectious contacts) and household models (in which the population is partitioned into households with different contact rates for within- and between-household infection). In this talk I describe and analyse a model for the spread of an SIR (susceptible → infective → removed) epidemic that includes both of these features. The analysis includes deriving a threshold parameter which determines whether or not an epidemic with few initial infectives can become established and lead to a major outbreak, and determining the probability and expected final size of a major outbreak. The model is compared and contrasted with standard household and network models and vaccination strategies are briefly considered.
Based on work done jointly with David Sirl (Loughborough University) and Pieter Trapman (Stockholm University).
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Lunch: group 3