糖心TV Complexity Science Events
Complexity Centre and MathSys CDT events carry priority over room D1.07.
To book D1.07 please email Sheetal dot Sharma at warwick dot ac dot uk
Please note that your event booking is for D1.07 only. The adjacent common room is a private area for the MathSys Centre that cannot used as part of your booking.
Informal Complexity Forum: Michael Small (Hong Kong)
Title: Complex network models for real epidemics
Abstract: It is well known that an infectious agent propagating on a scale-free network will persist even for vanishingly small transmission probabilities. In this talk I will present some recent work from my group on the transmission dynamics of real disease outbreaks: the 2005 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak in Hong Kong; and the current, persistent, worldwide outbreak of Avian Influenza (AI) in birds. I will present data from the SARS outbreak in HK to show that it can be modelled well as transmission on a small-world and possibly scale-free network. For the current AI outbreak our data shows that transmission is consistent with an infectious agent on a scale-free, but not small-world network. I will discuss the differences between these two results and propose a model for the evolution of scale-free, but not small-world, networks.